In this segment we will analyze the bitcoin price in June and the reaction it has had in the last week of 2020, after the long-awaited halving. 👇
In our previous report, we analyzed in depth the different reactions of the bitcoin price, before and after each of the halving processes (the first occurred in 2012 and the second in 2016). We’ll see how the asset performs after its third historical halving.
As tools for this analysis, we will continue to use the daily, weekly, and monthly time frames. This will give us a proper macro perspective on the bitcoin price in June, for both swing traders and investors looking to get long-term market exposure for their respective currencies.
In the monthly time frame, bitcoin managed to close at $9,450 for the month of May, reaching a close above its previous resistance at $9,300, a value that it had not managed to get to at a monthly close in the year 2020. In lower time frames , you can notice how the strongest resistance is in the $10,500 zone, which bitcoin tried to break a third time, on June 1st.
In the last month’s report, we emphasized the $9,300-$9,600 range, which cannot be exceeded by current asset prices. Once again, the bitcoin price in May failed to close above $9,600, which many participants had expected to be the price of a bitcoin in the first place.
We quickly move to the weekly chart where the story is much clearer. The two key resistances in this framework are the one formed at $9,650, followed by the one formed by the wick at $10,500, a level mentioned in our last report where the bulls continued their bullish movement.
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The most important support in this time frame would be the block at around $8,700 (monthly opening in May). The strength of the bulls defending that level by the four weekly bars with no close below, confirms the range between $ 8,700- $ 9,650 formed in this time frame. A June bitcoin price close below or above the stated range could trigger a strong push in either direction.
The ladder continues, bitcoin has not stopped marking new lower lows since the crash caused by the coronavirus. At the time of writing this report (June 3, 2020), the price of bitcoin is quoted at $9,500, after having “hunted” his previous highs at $10,000, trapping many escape traders who wanted to play the ‘long’. Sadly, bitcoin failed to break its other barrier at $10,500 and visited $9,100 again after the boost.
On the daily chart we can find a symmetrical triangle pattern, which probabilistically indicates that a bullish movement in the bitcoin price in June. As we can see, the escape traders were already hunted in the first attempt to break this upward pattern and caused the price to head back inside the triangle.
The uncertainty caused by macroeconomic conditions invites market participants to be cautious and apply risk management systems to their own financial systems. The current situation in the United States adds chaos to what already seemed like a horror movie, while the stock markets show positive increases.
Bitcoin’s price, for example, has risen 170% since its fall in March. However, it is essential to filter the noise to operate methodically and pragmatically in the markets and make better decisions as investors or traders.
On the other hand, the gradual reopening of the economies provides a sense of improvement in countries that have already experienced the results of the first wave of the coronavirus. From China to Italy and Spain, the number of cases seems to decrease, and local businesses reopen their doors, following preventive measures imposed by the authorities.
Finally, Governments, especially those with reserve currency, have decided to maintain their economies by injecting liquidity and borrowing with amounts never seen before. Although this excess liquidity could have long-term inflationary effects on each country’s local currencies, it is an immediate solution to the crisis.
This represents an opportunity for digital assets such as bitcoin, to see themselves as a safeguarding option, thanks to their ability to be finite and to face the impossibility of being inflationary.
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* The tickers used in the charts in this report correspond to BTCUSD and ETHUSD, from the Exchange Bitstamp.
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